Maple Leafs vs. Lightning picks and odds: Bet on Toronto to keep rolling

Two of the Atlantic Division’s top teams meet on Saturday night, as the Tampa Bay Lightning hosts the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The pregame narrative: The last time these teams met, Nick Paul was breaking the hearts of Leafs fans everywhere with a heroic performance in Game 7 of their first-round playoff matchup. Toronto closed out November with five wins in a row.

Check out our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning picks for December 3.

Odds as of 9:40 am on 12/03/2022.

Maple Leaf vs. Lightning picks

Best Bet : Maple Leafs regulation win – tie no bet (+110)

November was a ridiculous month for the Maple Leafs. In a good way.

As Halloween night cool way to a new month, Toronto was in a scary spot. The team entered November sitting seventh in its division with a 4-4-2 record.

In 15 games since, though, the Leafs have rattled off an 11-1-3 record, bolting past the Lightning and others en route to second-place position in the Atlantic. That’s some kind of month-long heater.

And after two nights off, as the hotter team in this matchup, we like the plus-money value of this bet.

The only way to lose is if Toronto falls in regulation, which has happened just once in its past 15 games (if this matchup goes to overtime, the wager is a push). And although Tampa Bay is a formidable foe, the Lightning have a mediocre six regulation wins in 11 home matchups.

Toronto scored 60.5% of the goals in its November matchups, which was the third-highest share in the NHL. Expect the road team to at least keep things tight tonight.

key stat: The Maple Leafs have either won in regulation or survived to overtime in 14 of their past 15 games.

Quick picks

Under 6.5 goals (-122): Betting the under might be a little less fun, but it’s been a lot more profitable in Maple Leafs games this year.

The under is 17-7 in Toronto’s matchups, which equates to a success rate north of 70%. That includes five unders in its past six games.

Tampa’s presumed starter, Andrei Vasilevskiy, was slow out of the gate but has a 2.17 GAA and .926 SV% in his past six games. Pair that with Toronto’s season-long rate of 2.46 goals allowed per 60 (third in NHL) and we’ll gladly take the under.

Maple Leafs 1P win – tie no bet (+100): A key component of the Maple Leafs’ stellar play in November was getting off to a fast start.

In its past nine games, Toronto has only trailed once at the end of the first period, posting a 6-1-3 record in that span. At even money, we think there’s plenty of value in betting the Buds to come out with at least a draw entering first intermission.


Jordan Horrobin writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @JordanHorobin

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.


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